The plague and I

Just two weeks ago, I posted my excitement about a May celebration of my birthday by family and friends, to take place in Levanto, Italy.  Just two weeks ago, the COVID-19 coronavirus seemed like a distant threat, of interest only to the hapless residents of Wuhan, China.

Since then, of course, major outbreaks have occurred in Korea and Japan.  And, unfortunately, Italy.  As of yesterday, Italy reported 229 cases, with six deaths.  The great majority have been in Lombardy, including Milan.  None have been reported along the Ligurian seacoast.

But already I've had at least one inquiry as to whether we have a "Plan B" in case Italy appears too dangerous to visit.

When Odysseus ran into one calamity after another while sailing home to Ithaca, he blamed the anger of the sea god Poseidon. I'm tempted to seek an analogous explanation for my own frustration.   My Italian birthday party, two years in the planning?   A new virus out of China, timed perfectly to obstruct that party?   Coincidence?   Maybe.

But I will attempt to stay scientific. My response to the Plan B question was, and is, "no."  There is no Plan B.   We just don't know what the situation will be by May.  If Chinese reports, and those of the World Health Organization, are truthful and accurate, the outbreak in China seems already to have peaked earlier this month and to be increasingly under control.  Maybe the same trajectory will be followed in Italy, while the epidemic spreads in the United States. By May, it may be safer to spend two weeks in Italy than here in America.  No one can predict how widespread the epidemic will be, or which areas will be most adversely affected.

Also, while the fatality rate for COVID-19 infection has run between two and four percent in Wuhan, outside China it has been -- so far -- under one percent.  The American mortality rate associated with influenza in 2018-19, according to the CDC, was about 0.1 to 0.2 percent.  While any risk of death is something to be considered, virtually every activity poses some risk.

I'd rather risk potentially contracting the coronavirus during a vacation in Italy, than contracting it while wandering around Seattle.  Or, to be more flippant, I'd rather die from contracting COVID-19 while hiking about the Cinque Terre than die of an aneurysm while watching Fox News at home on television.

But others might feel otherwise.  No one who has planned joining  us in Italy is under contract to do so.  We can recover a portion of the vacation rental if we cancel our rental of either or both villas by March 16.  I'll poll our party to see how many, if any, would rather not travel to Italy in May.

And then decide how best to respond.