Biden's looking like a winner. That thought was expressed even more strongly in tonight's streamed lecture than it was on Sunday. I'm referring, of course, to the two-lecture series presented by the University of Washington's Professor David Domke.
(Insert -- These lecture summaries may or may not be interesting to my readers. Like some book reviews, I write them primarily to remind myself what I read/heard, and how I reacted, when I look back at some future time. Bear with me!)
Tonight's lecture expanded on the fourth critical factor set forth in the earlier lecture -- President Trump's leadership qualifications. The short summary is that he has none, and that lack has become glaringly apparent to the voting public.
Domke started off somewhat abstractly. Voters see the presidency as having two aspects -- head of state and manager of the nation. As head of state, he sums up who we are, and represents us to other nations. He observed that -- although his Seattle audience might find it hard to believe -- a large portion of the country likes Trump's rather crude, "tough guy" approach in dealing with other countries. But voters don't really vote based on their approval or disapproval of this aspect of the presidency. It's the president's ability to manage the nation that hits home for everyone.
Any president's ability as manager can be broken down into three factors:
1. Competence -- intelligence, ability, execution.
2. Integrity -- honesty, trustworthiness, moral core
3. Empathy -- care for others, compassion, ability to relate to persons other than himself
In a time of crisis, like today, integrity becomes less important, except as it's incorporated into the other two factors. Competence is most important, and empathy is second.
When a crisis occurs, Americans tend to give their leader the benefit of the doubt. Domke pointed out a number of examples over the past fifty years when voters rallied about the president. But when a leader begins to appear incompetent, things go sour for him quickly. This is what has happened with Trump. His first few virus briefings were fairly well received, but then it became all too clear that he had no idea what he was talking about. He might well have survived the coronavirus crisis if he had stopped the briefings while he was ahead, and then shut up and let his experts and responsible departments handle the details.
When the racism protests began, he might have recovered some of the ground lost earlier if he had acted competently. But he didn't. His ratings have now reached a low point that no presidential candidate has had since Carter in 1980.
Action suggestion: Start gathering a "cabinet" of advisers to be seen by voters, speaking on the pandemic, on the economy, and on racial affairs. Biden is very calm, which is a good contrast with Trump, and such a cabinet would show his willingness to rely on the specialized expertise of persons who knew what they were talking about.
The other factor, empathy, is always something it's nice for a candidate to have, but it becomes critical during a crisis. Domke believes that Trump not merely doesn't display empathy, but is psychologically incapable of empathy. On the other hand, Biden's very best trait is his natural and amazing empathy -- his ability to be really interested in other people. Domke recalls the time that Biden went to a black church and sat in the congregation for several hours -- not speaking, just listening to others.
Action suggestion: Just keep doing what you're doing.
Domke believes that there are three regions of the nation where Biden can win the election. The most obvious is Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Hillary lost three of those states by less than a percentage point. Polls and primary results show that white voters over 65, who were turned off by Hillary, because of sexism and for other reasons, have moved back toward the Democrats since 2016. In the South, Florida is up for grabs, with Georgia and North Carolina definitely in play. And in the West, Arizona could definitely go blue, with Texas a possibility. Trump can't lose many of those states. He's in trouble, five months before the election.
Young people will not be the crucial factor in this election, despite all the talk to the contrary in the early primaries. The critical blocs will be black voters and suburban women, along with working class white voters.
Interesting lecture, a lot of graphs and maps and data. Domke will give other lectures this month and next. He is definitely hoping to sign up more "on the ground" workers for the campaign ahead.
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