David Domke streamed his second lecture of this series -- "The Presidency and Leadership" -- from the interior of his rented RV, parked somewhere about twenty miles north of New York City. He is working on behalf of his organization, "Common Power," visiting critical states where he meets with local Common Power staff people -- discussing tactics and firing up their enthusiasm. He looked a bit tired, but full of enthusiasm himself. He and co-workers had rented the RV in Seattle, and had already visited Montana, Minnesota, Chicago, Durham NC, Richmond VA, and New York. They are bound for Boston and Maine. He will still be on the road next Tuesday, when he delivers the third and last lecture of the series -- "The Senate for the Win."
Trump is a demagogue; he is today's version of Joe McCarthy. President Eisenhower helped end McCarthy's career, Domke feels. But Trump is the president. Demagogues rely on a certain narrative flow:
1. Certain people endanger America.
2. I can save us.
3. I stand for "Real Americans."
4. The show is always on.
Who have been Trump's "certain people"? Immigrants, Hillary/Obama, the "Deep State," the "False News," bad allies (both foreign and domestic). Since Covid-19, to these "certain people" have been added Democratic governors, street protesters, anarchists, and Joe Biden.
Until March, Trump would almost certainly have won, because of his claim that he had brought prosperity to America. Since March, three major "explosions" have derailed Trump's route to victory. These are his handling of Covid-19, his handling of the racial protests, and the nomination of Biden.
In a race for re-election, if the nation is on an even keel, not facing any acute crisis, the focus is on political and economic issues, not on the personality of the incumbent president. But in times of crisis, the focus is on the president's history of leadership. The voters judge leadership using three metrics -- competence, integrity, and empathy. Such judgments of incumbents have been frequently made -- sometimes the incumbent was nonetheless re-elected, often he was not. Examples:
--LBJ's handling of Vietnam -- judged incompetent and untrustworthy
--Carter's handling of the Iranian crisis -- judged incompetent.--
--Bush I's handling of the economy -- incompetent and lacking empathy (aloof)
--Bush II's handling of the Katrina disaster -- incompetent, aloof, untrustworthy (i.e., he lied)
--Obama's overseeing of Affordable Care Act -- incompetent handling of problems in execution.
Trump has been badly hurt by his handling of Covid-19. The pandemic itself did not hurt -- he could have ridden it out by warning the public that we were in for a bad time and that the economy would be badly hurt, but that under his leadership we'd recover. Instead, polls showed a huge drop in confidence in his leadership after the first couple of weeks of disastrous televised press conferences.
Trump took a second major hit by his handling of the racial protests. Instead of showing compassion and understanding of the feelings behind the protests, he came down hard on law and order. The polls showed another drop, not quite as severe, in public confidence in his leadership.
Third, having Biden as his opponent has presented him with major problems. Domke reminded us several times that this is not 2016. Fairly or unfairly, Hillary Clinton had problems with voters that Biden does not. Trump's campaign staff feel that attacking Biden is like attacking jello -- nothing they do makes any permanent dent in his popularity.
Biden has experience in handling pandemics. With Obama, he helped defuse the Ebola threat. They prepared a program of how to confront probable future pandemics. Last October, Biden warned that we were not prepared for an epidemic. Trump had rolled back all the proposals contained in the Obama program.
Domke says that Biden has "hit the mark pretty well" handling the protests -- not perfect, but he's been far superior to Trump. A large percentage of voters feel that Biden is better prepared to handle the protests. He has an obvious history of empathy, and ability to bring people together. He has a good relationship with Blacks.
Trump wins only if the economy makes a miraculous recovery in the next seven weeks. Or if the pandemic should suddenly end. Biden's advantages are these:
1. He's ahead in the vital states.
2. Biden's advantages in personality and history, indicated above, are valuable.
3. The debates will be crucial.
Biden is an able debater. If he wins the debates, he will win the election comfortably. If Trump were able to improve his apparent personality, he could get back into the race. But he probably is unable to do that. Not in seven weeks.
Pre-election approval of a vaccine is not going to win for Trump.
Biden can't be complacent. Nationally, 96 to 97 percent of probable voters know already for whom they will vote. But in the battleground states, it takes only a few votes one way or the other, to change the result. That's why Domke and Common Power are working so hard in those states -- not just on persuading uncertain voters, but on encouraging turn-out and opposing voter suppression..
In answer to a question at the end, Domke said that yes, he is concerned about post-election violence in the nation, regardless of who wins. "There is no easy path forward for America. I'm sobered by that."
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