Travel in the time of Covid.

But the U.S. is "going into a very dark winter," he [President-elect Biden] said.  "Things are going to get much tougher before they get easier."

--New York Times

Mr. Biden's words stare out at me from my newspaper page.  They paint a picture in my mind of images from an on-line game of medieval warfare -- ice and snow, starving mothers and crying babies, the clank of swords against armor, cries of barbarian hordes at the castle gate.

Actually, Mr. Biden's "very dark winter" referred to prospects for the economy during the coming months, but, even so, a bad economy means parents out of work, unable to pay for basic food and shelter.

Bad prospects for the winter are superimposed on very good news this past week from pharmaceutical companies that are developing Covid-19 vaccines -- initially-evaluated efficacy rates of over 90 percent by Pfizer and over 94 percent by Moderna.  But testing on those vaccines has not been completed, and approval by the FDA has not yet been granted.  Even if, as many hope, one or both vaccines will be approved next month, the vaccine's voyage from the pharmaceutical company to the arm of the average citizen will be complicated and time-consuming.  Some of us may be vaccinated by spring, but for many others, vaccination may not be available until some time in the summer.

With our nation facing a crisis in its economy, and with citizens showing increasing impatience and refusal to observe simple precautions like wearing masks and maintaining social distances, it seems selfish and self-centered for me to be worried about whether I can travel to Italy.  But my plans for Italy continue to hang over my head as an issue that I can't simply ignore.

I still have a large deposit paid, holding a reservation for a large villa in Levanto on Italy's Ligurian coast.  We had thirty guests signed up for a two-week birthday party last May, a party that had to be canceled at nearly the last minute.  Rather than argue about whether I should lose my deposit, our get-together was rescheduled for May 2021.  Meanwhile, some of our expected guests no longer can make it, but we've gained a few new ones as well.  

That was the status the last I heard.  By now, I suspect that many more of our party have quietly given up entirely on the trip.

We have until mid-January to cancel, and receive a refund of most of our deposit.  I've promised the group that a final decision would be made by then as to whether we would continue to press forward with the trip.  My decision will be complicated by the fact that Italy, and the rest of the EU, currently bans American tourists because of our lousy job of handling the virus.  And not only is the pandemic not easing off in the U.S., it is growing considerably worse.  Moreover, although for most of the year, Europe itself seemed to be handling the pandemic far better than were we, the EU is now itself suffering from a major increase in its rate of infection.

I question whether we'll be allowed to enter Italy by May, even if we all have vaccinations, although it's hard to predict the Italian government's decisions -- given its dependence on tourism -- during the next few months.  I also question whether, once we got there, the experience would be all that enjoyable.  Playing on the beach and hiking through the hills while the plague rages about us might be more stressful than the experience would be worth.

So.  I read the reports each day giving the percentages of newly diagnosed cases.  I try to foresee the future.  I rejoice in the prospect of effective vaccines.  But I question how much the situation will have improved six months from now.

Time will tell, as the saying goes.