Midterm elections

Four more days until the mid-term elections.  The campaign seems to have lasted forever.  Actually, it pretty much has lasted for two years.  But finally, we're about to get some decisions.

I have no idea who is going to win in any race, or which party will win overall.  Those who are paid to prognosticate seem, for the most part, to predict that the Democrats will regain the House by a small margin, and that the Republicans will slightly improve their position in the Senate.

But then we remember how accurate the polls were two years ago, right?  Let's face it, the decision could go either way, especially in the House.

This midterm election seems far more critical -- apocalyptic, actually -- because Trump has decided not to run on his own program or against the program of the Democrats, but on voter loyalty to himself as The Leader.  Surprise!  To those of us unpersuaded that Trump is the new Thomas Jefferson or Abraham Lincoln, the election thus becomes a referendum on the extent to which the American voters are willing to confirm in power a government that increasingly seems fascist in its pretensions and its approaches to governing.  

Mr. Trump's swooning over the election of a right wing autocrat in Brazil hasn't given us much cause for comfort.

Trump, and the Republican party itself since at least the Nixon administration, has made polarization of the American voting public a major objective.  This produces what has been called tribalization -- where voters no longer vote based on an analysis of the issues, or -- in voting for Congress -- the personality and character of the candidates, but for Blue or Red -- i.e., liberal or conservative, urban or rural, coastal or "flyover," globalist or nationalist.  All these opposing tendencies have now been aligned, so that all you need to say is "Blue" or "Red," and for most voters their position on all issues is totally predictable.

Trump has taken advantage of this polarization, and has enhanced it.  He prefers to think not in terms of Blue or Red, but of Trumpist or anti-Trumpist.  Being a Republican is not enough, nor is being a conservative.  If you don't toe the Trumpist line -- whatever that line may be as of 3 a.m. this morning as Trump broods over his Twitter feed -- then you are an Enemy.  Ask the Speaker of the House.  It took only a slight suggestion from Paul Ryan that Trump couldn't unilaterally amend the Constitution to bring the full brunt of Trumpist scorn down upon his head.

So, yeah, I'd say the election is important.  Even just gaining control of the House would permit the Democrats to stymie some of the more disastrous ideas that Trump may dream up over the next two years, although the Republicans' retaining control of the Senate would leave Trump free to make crazy appointments at will.

Because of the New Tribalism, there is no longer a large independent swing vote.  Polls show that everyone who loved Trump in 2016 loves him still today, and the same with those opposed.  The problem, therefore, hasn't been to persuade voters on the merits of the issues, but to get them to vote.  Hence the importance of those polls that try to determine which side's voters are the most fired up and eager to vote.

And we don't know, really.  It could go either way.

So -- if you would prefer to retain a traditional democracy in America, get out there and VOTE! And make sure your relatives and friends do so as well.

If you feel more comfortable having Trump run the country via tweet, then relax.  Your man's almost certain to win.  It's cold outside, and I suggest you crack open another six-pack of brewskies, sit back and relax, and watch NASCAR on TV, come Tuesday.