Sunday, January 29, 2017

Two presidents


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'I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.''
--Lyndon B. Johnson, March 31, 1968


According to a 1988 article in the New York Times, written by LBJ's chief of staff, Johnson had been considering plans to refuse re-election as early as September 1967.  But before his final speech, he commissioned a poll that indicated that he would likely win re-election, thus persuading him that he was not quitting out of fear of failure.

But President Johnson had strong misgivings about the war he was conducting in Vietnam, and about America's chance of conclusively winning that war.  Like President Trump, he felt that the New York Times was "working for the enemy" -- either that, or that the facts provided by U.S. intelligence had been misleading him.  And I suspect he was affected by the massive student demonstrations against the war, which  peaked with the Tet Offensive in early 1968.

Johnson was always in close contact with the military.  He had highly qualified cabinet members heading State and Defense.  He himself had been the Democratic leader in the Senate from 1953 until becoming vice president.  He knew senators of both parties -- how to do them favors and how to call in favors from them.  Whatever one thinks of his presidency, he was a consummate political leader.

Johnson had his fingers on the pulse of the nation, and an instinctive feel for the concerns of Congress.  He heard the cries, "Hey, hey, LBJ.  How many kids have you killed today?"  He sensed that he himself, his personality as well as his decisions, were dividing the nation sharply on the issue of Vietnam.  And so he stood aside.

I remember Johnson as I see the photos of the massive demonstrations against a Trump reign that is only a week old.  I read, and participate in, howls of outrage on social media (admitting that my media contacts largely occupy a liberal, urban bubble).  I read about the ACLU's initial successes in combatting Trump's hastily imposed travel bans.  These events are all encouraging.

But what will they accomplish?  Vietnam demonstrations helped persuade LBJ to resign, because he felt the forces moving the nation.  Trump may have a feeling for one narrow portion of the American public -- what has been described as a rural, mid-continental tribal grouping for whom "America First" is a cry that comes naturally.  But he ignores the rest of the country, or believes, perhaps, that they represent a tiny minority.  He hates the NY Times, but unlike LBJ never wonders if his own sources of information might be faulty.  He acts quickly, bragging about his quickness, and consequently acts sloppily.

And now he has surrounded himself with a cabinet, a national defense team, and a presidential staff who virtually all share some of the most backward thinking in today's America.  And in Congress, he enjoys a Republican majority whose leaders (with a couple of notable exceptions) bend over backwards in their attempts to be obsequious.

In short, we can demonstrate, write letters, and holler on the internet all we want.  We aren't confronting an LBJ, a president in occasional Hamlet mode.  A president who listens and worries.  We are facing a president who knows what he knows and has no interest in knowing anything else.  He is surrounded by white, old men -- mostly incredibly wealthy -- who are determined to buck him up if he shows any signs of faltering.  Trump's not going to resign.  He's not going to back down.  He's not going to learn.

Unless the Republican leadership finally revolts, we're in store for at least four years that will leave us a far different country.  Not the sort of country that LBJ would have wanted.  Not the sort of country that soldiers fought two world wars to preserve.

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