Politics and foreign policy

Senator John McCain has now reassured me that we acted wisely in keeping him in the Senate, rather than putting him in the White House.

While the Obama administration has exercised caution and restraint in its response to the Iranian election and its aftermath, McCain has plunged loudly right into the fray. President Obama is not talking "tough" enough, in McCain's opinion. According to the Associated Press:

The Arizona senator says President Barack Obama needs to speak out about what McCain calls Iran's "corrupt, flawed, sham of an election."

First of all, while the presidential election returns do seem suspicious in some respects, there is as yet no clear evidence that they were in fact fraudulent. Even if they were tainted by fraud, we have no reason to believe that the result -- as opposed to the margin of victory -- would have been different in the absence of fraud. Clear class divisions exist within Iran, and Ahmadinejad appeals to a wide assortment of rural, poor, and less sophisticated voters.

Second, as the president has stated, in light of the unfortunate history between Iran and the United States -- with our country's having supported Britain's overthrow of a democratically elected government in the 1950's and then having supported the unpopular and despotic Shah for decades later -- the last thing we want now is give the Iranians -- both the people and the rulers -- the idea that we are "meddling" in their internal affairs. Sen. Frank Lugar, ranking Republican on the foreign relations committee, agrees.

Third, as President Obama stated today, there is no reason to believe that a Moussavi government would follow policies all that different from the incumbent Ahmadinejad administration. Moussavi is not a new face in Iran. He served as Prime Minister throughout the 1980's. Even if he proved somewhat more liberal on certain domestic issues, foreign and military affairs would remain under the control of the unelected Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While we correctly would prefer to see a freely elected government with liberal domestic policies, the choice of president has little bearing on the policies of the Islamic Republic that most concern us -- its relations with Israel and Arab states, and development of nuclear weapons.

Fourth, exactly what would "speaking out loudly" accomplish? Capitulation by the Iranian government, a government that persists in developing nuclear fuel despite every sanction we can impose upon them?

We had enough of "talking tough" in the prior administration. McCain is not exercising leadership or statesmanship. He should keep quiet and avoid complicating the president's task in developing a constructive relationship with Iran.