Tuesday, May 8, 2018

War-war more fun than jaw-jaw


So America today trashed the agreement with Iran that has prevented that country from proceeding with its nuclear program in exchange for the West's lifting of crippling sanctions.  Or rather one individual, Mr. Trump, has trashed the agreement after eliminating one by one every adviser who had advised otherwise, and after dismissing with disdain the united opposition of our European allies.

Did he do it because of his pathological hatred of Obama, who has been credited with negotiating the treaty?

Maybe.  Or maybe it's just one of those gut feelings on which he has based all aspects of his life, a gut feeling predating his election.  As Trump said, trashing the Iran deal was one of his campaign promises, and by golly Mr. Trump is a man who keeps his promises.

So we further alienate a major country in the Middle East, one whose middle classes have traditionally been friendly to the United States.  We make it more difficult for moderates to prevail, and make it easier for the radical fundamentalists to keep a chokehold on Iran's foreign policy.

While alienating Iran, whose nuclear program at least purported to be aimed at providing nuclear energy, Trump falls all over himself in seeking to reach an accommodation with North Korea -- a country led by a far more unstable Supreme Leader, a guy who has threatened repeatedly to involve the world in a nuclear conflagration, and a country of far less importance to the world economically and geopolitically.

If I felt that Trump had made his incomprehensible decision based on some skillfully developed strategic plan, in coordination with the best political and military minds our nation offers, I might be more cautious in my criticism.  But Trump is a man whose lack of curiosity about other nations and inability to focus on any matter more than five minutes is one of the wonders of our time.  At some point, something about Iran irritated him.  He probably doesn't even remember what set him off; but he does remembers that, boy, he sure doesn't like Iran.

Or Obama.

Who knows, maybe everything will work out.  Even dead clocks are right twice a day.  Trump feels that yelling and blustering and being the bully that he is by nature is prompting North Korea to consider a peace treaty.  He thus concludes that he has a technique that will work everywhere.  All that Peace on Earth has been waiting for is the advent of some streetwise real estate dealer from New York who will straighten things out. 

"You got a real nice town here, this Tehran.  It would be a shame if something happened to it."

Bullying may work in New York.  It may even work in Korea, although that's far from certain at this point.  I don't think it will work against the proud descendants of the Persian Empire, a people who, with patience, have repeatedly come back from adversity throughout their some 2,600-year history.

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