Mad as hell

Yesterday, in response to a question, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said:

“Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was.

Today, Warren Buffet has been quoted, offering his opinion that the economy has not gotten worse -- but hasn't gotten better either -- the past three months. In the absence of some "horrible event," he does not see much of a chance for a significant downturn in the near future for the overall economy.

These are very cautious, measured statements. Bernanke emphasizes that, using the technical definition of "recession" -- month to month decrease in the GDP -- the recession is over. This leaves us at the bottom of the hill, hoping for a future rise in GDP, leading in turn to increased employment. Buffet essentially says the same thing, in less technical language.

But read the on-line comments to the news stories reporting both men's statements. Readers call both men liars, ignorant, incompetent, selfish, unable to see what's in front of their face. How can they say the recession is over, writers howl, when times are as tough as they are.

The fault lies partly in the layman's use of "recession" to signify not a receding of the economy, but simply bad times economically. But the bitter on-line comments also demonstrate just how bad life has become for many Americans. When you're out of work and you fear that you will be permanently unemployable in tomorrow's economy, you don't stop to notice fine distinctions in technical terminology. Nor are you interested in secular economic trends, changes in demographics, or evolving life styles in foreign countries as root causes for the decline in the American economy. All you care about is that yesterday was good, and tomorrow looks like it will be bad, very bad. Someone screwed up, and "we want our country back."

Citizens who write comments on-line are not stupid. They are articulate, and they have some technological sophistication. If these writers are "mad as hell," they represent a lot of other people out there, people who may feel even angrier and more hopeless.

If the economy doesn't show definite improvement by November 2010 -- not just technically, not just in the stock market, but at the level that affects the average guy -- it will clearly play a major role in determining the results of the midterm elections. The question is -- which candidates and which party will pay the higher price?